Chicago highs
The market this page measures: highest temperature in Chicago on 28 September 2026 on Polymarket
Whatever the market priced for 2026-09-28, what every weather model forecasts for the same day, and what actually happened, all in °F. The gap column is how far a model sits from the market: above the market it ran warm, below it ran cool. Resolves on station KORD.
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models say
68.8 °F
avg of 11 models
market's pick
72-73 °F
46.50% on this bucket
gap
+4.26 °F
spread 11.0 °F
actual
not resolved yet
A temperature difference scales rather than shifts: a gap of 1 °C reads as 1.8 °F. The colour bands still use the Celsius thresholds, so a row can look large here and still count as a small disagreement.
Market odds for 2026-09-28
What Polymarket is paying for each temperature. Each price is the market's probability that the day lands in that bucket, so they add up to about 100%. Latest reading 2026-09-28 10:15 UTC, shown in °F.
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| temperature °F | odds | |
|---|---|---|
| 64-65 °F | 0.05% | |
| 66-67 °F | 0.10% | |
| 68-69 °F | 2.45% | |
| 70-71 °F | 11.00% | |
| 72-73 °F | 46.50% | |
| 74-75 °F | 38.00% | |
| 76-77 °F | 3.20% | |
| 78-79 °F | 0.25% | |
| 80-81 °F | 0.05% |
Every forecast for 2026-09-28
Each model's newest reading for this day, in °F, taken 2026-09-28 06:40 to 10:00 UTC. Gap is the difference from the market, in degrees: a model above the market ran warm, one below ran cool.
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| model | forecast °F | gap vs market °F | |
|---|---|---|---|
| THE MARKET | 73.1 | – | – |
| jma gsm | 60.3 | -12.8 | |
| ncep nam conus | 66.6 | -6.5 | |
| ncep nbm conus | 68.9 | -4.2 | |
| best match | 69.3 | -3.8 | |
| ncep hrrr conus | 69.3 | -3.8 | |
| ncep gfs global | 69.6 | -3.4 | |
| meteofrance arpege world | 70.0 | -3.1 | |
| ecmwf ifs025 | 70.3 | -2.7 | |
| cma grapes global | 70.7 | -2.4 | |
| ukmo seamless | 70.7 | -2.4 | |
| dwd icon global | 71.2 | -1.8 |
How the forecasts moved
Every reading we hold for 2026-09-28, newest column first, in °F. The bracket under each time says how long before the day that reading was taken (or after, once the day has started), so the table reads right to left as the day approached. A model still moving in the last day is a model that has not settled, and that is the one to distrust. Older readings are kept but not shown.
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| model | 09-28 10:00 (5h after) | 09-28 09:00 (4h after) | 09-28 08:00 (3h after) | 09-28 07:30 (3h after) | 09-28 06:40 (2h after) | 09-28 06:30 (2h after) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| THE MARKET | 73.0 | 73.0 | 73.0 | 73.0 | 72.9 | 72.7 |
| best match | 69.3 | 68.5 | 68.9 | – | 69.1 | – |
| cma grapes global | – | – | – | – | 70.7 | 70.7 |
| dwd icon global | 71.2 | – | – | – | 71.6 | – |
| ecmwf ifs025 | – | – | – | – | 70.3 | – |
| jma gsm | – | – | – | – | 60.3 | – |
| meteofrance arpege world | – | – | – | – | 70.0 | – |
| ncep gfs global | – | – | – | – | 69.6 | – |
| ncep hrrr conus | 69.3 | 68.5 | 68.9 | – | 69.1 | – |
| ncep nam conus | – | 66.6 | – | – | 64.8 | – |
| ncep nbm conus | – | 68.9 | – | – | 68.2 | – |
| ukmo seamless | – | – | – | 70.7 | 70.0 | – |