Wellington lows
The market this page measures: lowest temperature in Wellington on 28 September 2026 on Polymarket
Whatever the market priced for 2026-09-28, what every weather model forecasts for the same day, and what actually happened, all in °C. The gap column is how far a model sits from the market: above the market it ran warm, below it ran cool. Resolves on station NZWN.
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models say
7.2 °C
avg of 8 models
market's pick
5.0 °C
99.50% on this strike
gap
-1.94 °C
spread 5.7 °C
actual
not resolved yet
Market odds for 2026-09-28
What Polymarket is paying for each temperature. Each price is the market's probability that the day lands in that strike, so they add up to about 100%. Latest reading 2026-09-28 10:25 UTC, shown in °C.
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| temperature °C | odds | |
|---|---|---|
| 4.0 °C | 0.40% | |
| 5.0 °C | 99.50% | |
| 6.0 °C | 0.05% | |
| 7.0 °C | 0.05% | |
| 8.0 °C | 0.05% | |
| 9.0 °C | 0.05% | |
| 10.0 °C | 0.05% | |
| 11.0 °C | 0.05% | |
| 12.0 °C | 0.05% |
The market has already decided this day: 5.0 °C is priced at 99.50% and everything else is near zero. That is the market calling the outcome, not a forecast, so read it as the answer.
Every forecast for 2026-09-28
Each model's newest reading for this day, in °C, taken 2026-09-28 06:40 UTC. Gap is the difference from the market, in degrees: a model above the market ran warm, one below ran cool.
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| model | forecast °C | gap vs market °C | |
|---|---|---|---|
| THE MARKET | 5.2 | – | – |
| ukmo seamless | 3.9 | -1.3 | |
| dwd icon global | 5.8 | +0.6 | |
| ncep gfs global | 6.3 | +1.1 | |
| meteofrance arpege world | 6.5 | +1.3 | |
| ecmwf ifs025 | 8.3 | +3.1 | |
| cma grapes global | 8.4 | +3.2 | |
| best match | 8.7 | +3.5 | |
| jma gsm | 9.6 | +4.4 |
How the forecasts moved
Every reading we hold for 2026-09-28, newest column first, in °C. The bracket under each time says how long before the day that reading was taken (or after, once the day has started), so the table reads right to left as the day approached. A model still moving in the last day is a model that has not settled, and that is the one to distrust. Older readings are kept but not shown.
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| model | 09-28 06:40 (20h after) | 09-28 06:07 (19h after) | 09-28 00:07 (13h after) | 09-27 20:00 (9h after) | 09-27 19:30 (9h after) | 09-27 18:07 (7h after) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| best match | 8.7 | 8.7 | 8.7 | – | – | 8.7 |
| cma grapes global | 8.4 | 8.4 | 8.4 | – | – | 8.4 |
| dwd icon global | 5.8 | 5.8 | 5.8 | – | – | 5.8 |
| ecmwf ifs025 | 8.3 | 8.3 | 8.3 | 8.3 | – | 8.2 |
| jma gsm | 9.6 | 9.6 | 9.6 | – | – | 9.6 |
| meteofrance arpege world | 6.5 | 6.5 | 6.5 | – | – | 6.5 |
| ncep gfs global | 6.3 | 6.3 | 6.3 | – | – | 6.3 |
| ukmo seamless | 3.9 | 3.9 | 3.9 | – | 3.9 | 4.4 |