Tokyo lows
The market this page measures: lowest temperature in Tokyo on 28 September 2026 on Polymarket
Whatever the market priced for 2026-09-28, what every weather model forecasts for the same day, and what actually happened, all in °C. The gap column is how far a model sits from the market: above the market it ran warm, below it ran cool. Resolves on station RJTT.
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models say
21.1 °C
avg of 9 models
market's pick
22.0 °C
92.50% on this strike
gap
+0.81 °C
spread 2.2 °C
actual
not resolved yet
Market odds for 2026-09-28
What Polymarket is paying for each temperature. Each price is the market's probability that the day lands in that strike, so they add up to about 100%. Latest reading 2026-09-28 10:25 UTC, shown in °C.
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| temperature °C | odds | |
|---|---|---|
| 16.0 °C | 0.05% | |
| 17.0 °C | 0.05% | |
| 18.0 °C | 0.15% | |
| 19.0 °C | 0.15% | |
| 20.0 °C | 2.10% | |
| 21.0 °C | 7.50% | |
| 22.0 °C | 92.50% | |
| 23.0 °C | 0.05% | |
| 24.0 °C | 0.05% |
The market has already decided this day: 22.0 °C is priced at 92.50% and everything else is near zero. That is the market calling the outcome, not a forecast, so read it as the answer.
Every forecast for 2026-09-28
Each model's newest reading for this day, in °C, taken 2026-09-28 06:40 to 07:30 UTC. Gap is the difference from the market, in degrees: a model above the market ran warm, one below ran cool.
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| model | forecast °C | gap vs market °C | |
|---|---|---|---|
| THE MARKET | 21.9 | – | – |
| cma grapes global | 20.4 | -1.5 | |
| ecmwf ifs025 | 20.4 | -1.5 | |
| best match | 20.6 | -1.3 | |
| jma msm | 20.6 | -1.3 | |
| meteofrance arpege world | 20.6 | -1.3 | |
| dwd icon global | 20.8 | -1.1 | |
| ukmo seamless | 21.2 | -0.7 | |
| jma gsm | 22.5 | +0.6 | |
| ncep gfs global | 22.6 | +0.7 |
How the forecasts moved
Every reading we hold for 2026-09-28, newest column first, in °C. The bracket under each time says how long before the day that reading was taken (or after, once the day has started), so the table reads right to left as the day approached. A model still moving in the last day is a model that has not settled, and that is the one to distrust. Older readings are kept but not shown.
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| model | 09-28 07:30 (17h after) | 09-28 06:40 (16h after) | 09-28 06:07 (15h after) | 09-28 04:00 (13h after) | 09-28 01:30 (11h after) | 09-28 01:00 (10h after) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| THE MARKET | – | 21.8 | 21.8 | 21.7 | 21.7 | 21.7 |
| best match | – | 20.6 | 20.6 | – | – | – |
| cma grapes global | – | 20.4 | 20.4 | – | – | – |
| dwd icon global | – | 20.8 | 20.8 | – | – | – |
| ecmwf ifs025 | – | 20.4 | 20.4 | – | 20.4 | – |
| jma gsm | – | 22.5 | 22.5 | 22.5 | – | – |
| jma msm | – | 20.6 | 20.6 | – | – | – |
| meteofrance arpege world | – | 20.6 | 20.6 | – | – | – |
| ncep gfs global | – | 22.6 | 22.6 | – | – | – |
| ukmo seamless | 21.2 | 21.7 | 21.7 | – | – | 21.7 |