Cities 50 cities · day 2026-09-28 · 46 with a market price · prices 5 min ago · forecasts revised up to 3 h ago
Every city Polymarket lists a temperature market for, in two sections because the markets are quoted in different units. market is what Polymarket's odds imply right now, models the average of each model's newest forecast, gap the difference, spread how far the models disagree with each other: read the spread first. How to read this board.
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Markets measured in Celsius 39 cities · exact strikes, 1 degree apart
swipe the table sideways for every column
| city | market | models | gap | spread | models used |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Munich | 3.9 | 9.3 | -5.45 | 5.8 | 9 |
| Jinan | 15.9 | 20.9 | -4.93 | 2.0 | 8 |
| Beijing | 11.5 | 15.4 | -3.91 | 3.2 | 8 |
| Milan | 11.0 | 14.7 | -3.71 | 5.8 | 10 |
| Qingdao | 17.3 | 20.6 | -3.27 | 4.2 | 8 |
| Helsinki | 6.6 | 9.4 | -2.84 | 5.9 | 10 |
| Jeddah | 26.5 | 28.7 | -2.14 | 3.0 | 8 |
| Ankara | 11.3 | 13.4 | -2.13 | 1.5 | 9 |
| Moscow | 7.4 | 9.5 | -2.08 | 4.9 | 9 |
| Paris | 15.3 | 17.4 | -2.07 | 3.5 | 10 |
| Zhengzhou | 18.1 | 20.0 | -1.94 | 1.3 | 8 |
| Wellington | 5.2 | 7.2 | -1.94 | 5.7 | 8 |
| Tel Aviv | 21.2 | 23.1 | -1.93 | 3.3 | 8 |
| Warsaw | 7.5 | 9.2 | -1.75 | 4.1 | 9 |
| Istanbul | 16.0 | 17.7 | -1.68 | 1.3 | 9 |
| Chongqing | 22.5 | 24.1 | -1.65 | 2.2 | 8 |
| Busan | 19.5 | 21.1 | -1.59 | 4.4 | 9 |
| Mexico City | 13.4 | 14.9 | -1.56 | 4.9 | 8 |
| Toronto | 13.2 | 14.4 | -1.20 | 3.4 | 13 |
| Lucknow | 21.3 | 22.5 | -1.18 | 2.6 | 8 |
| Guangzhou | 25.9 | 27.1 | -1.16 | 1.7 | 8 |
| Wuhan | 21.0 | 22.2 | -1.14 | 2.1 | 8 |
| Taipei | 23.0 | 24.1 | -1.10 | 4.4 | 8 |
| Buenos Aires | 13.5 | 14.4 | -0.98 | 1.3 | 8 |
| Cape Town | 12.4 | 13.4 | -0.98 | 1.6 | 8 |
| Shenzhen | 26.1 | 27.1 | -0.98 | 1.9 | 8 |
| Chengdu | 20.8 | 21.6 | -0.88 | 2.2 | 8 |
| Karachi | 25.6 | 26.4 | -0.82 | 1.2 | 8 |
| Tokyo | 21.9 | 21.1 | +0.81 | 2.2 | 9 |
| Madrid | 16.8 | 17.6 | -0.76 | 4.3 | 10 |
| Hong Kong | 27.9 | 27.2 | +0.74 | 2.6 | 8 |
| Amsterdam | 15.0 | 15.6 | -0.63 | 1.9 | 10 |
| London | 13.9 | 13.3 | +0.63 | 3.3 | 10 |
| Sao Paulo | 17.4 | 17.5 | -0.07 | 2.4 | 8 |
| Shanghai | 23.9 | 23.9 | +0.04 | 2.0 | 8 |
| Kuala Lumpur | – | 25.7 | – | 2.1 | 8 |
| Manila | – | 26.6 | – | 2.3 | 8 |
| Panama City | – | 25.0 | – | 2.5 | 8 |
| Singapore | – | 25.6 | – | 3.3 | 8 |
Markets measured in Fahrenheit 11 cities · two-degree buckets
swipe the table sideways for every column
| city | market | models | gap | spread | models used |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin | 69.2 | 76.6 | -7.40 | 8.3 | 11 |
| Chicago | 49.6 | 53.6 | -3.99 | 7.9 | 11 |
| Houston | 74.4 | 77.7 | -3.27 | 5.2 | 11 |
| Dallas | 74.0 | 75.9 | -1.90 | 5.4 | 11 |
| Miami | 74.6 | 73.1 | +1.52 | 10.1 | 11 |
| Atlanta | 54.8 | 56.3 | -1.51 | 8.6 | 11 |
| Los Angeles | 65.5 | 66.8 | -1.24 | 8.1 | 11 |
| San Francisco | 52.9 | 54.0 | -1.02 | 6.1 | 11 |
| Seattle | 44.8 | 45.7 | -0.93 | 6.5 | 13 |
| Denver | 59.5 | 59.1 | +0.37 | 13.0 | 11 |
| New York City | 58.8 | 58.6 | +0.16 | 5.4 | 11 |
A dash means no price was recorded for that city and day. A figure marked settled is the outcome the market has already priced, not a forecast.